baypaul wrote: ↑19 Nov 2023 06:22
Remember that book value doesn't necessarily correspond to current sale price. I would expect it to be the initial build price depreciated on a straight line basis over around 30-35 years, with additions for major capex work. That would probably put Oscar Wilde significantly north of 65 million for example.
Thank you! I’m not entirely sure how it works, however Tallink says that the value of their fleet is frequently valued by independent shipbrokers for their balance sheet. So I figured it would be sale price. I could be wrong tho!
Look for an independent broker until you get a value you want 😄. Then how is the ferry being valued, bare, fully equipped or anywhere in between. The only time the vessel's value is real is when it is moved out of the companies assets and money is received for the ship. But that does not mean the value on the books is incorrect, the value of Symphony say can be far higher in terms of revenue produced to Tallink than for sale on the open market justifying the valuation, to the point it can even be worth spending more refitting a ship than open market value if the returns are there to justify it.
The impending cap on values is the tightening of emissions regulations which may mean that in reality older ships cannot be sold easily so could have little more than scrap value only in the market, but can still work for the company generating income well beyond that value. So I would view any valuation for any illiquid assets like ferries with a healthy dose of scepticism.
As a Yacht Broker during 45 turns round the sun, I can 100% say that there are loads of Brokers who simply want a listing, and will say what they see as necessary to get the listing. There are very rare cases where this is a winning tactic. A buyer already lined up, inside knowledge of the seller's real expectations ... but usually it is pure bull shit and a total waste of time.
I do occasionally have listings above my valuation, but the seller knows clearly what I think, and I have probably taken it on due to a third party friend asking me or similar reason.
Genuine and successful Brokers understand that making fools of themselves is not a great idea.
VikingGlory wrote: ↑18 Nov 2023 14:59
MS Star (Oscar Wilde)- My valuation: 55 million. Ordered for 135 million 16 years ago. Ships like Oscar Wilde are incredibly useful to many different types of ferry traffic. Her day passenger capacity is high and even her amount of cabins are ok. However, perhaps not good enough to ever sail as a night ferry non stop on important passenger routes. I'm having a bit of a hard time justifying that she'd be worth more than Atlantic Vision but I'm gonna keep it like this for now.
Atlantic Vision- My valuation: 50 million. These ships are some of the best designed and most useful vessels out there. Stena Line valued her sisters at 67 million euros in 2017. AV hasn't got some of the needed interior upgrades and she has always sailed very demanding waters. But I have no doubt that Tallink will receive good money when they decide to sell.
Silja Serenade- My valuation: 30 million. After all this time I think it's difficult to value them. I just think they don't really have a good place to go after Tallink Silja. Her lanemeters are to low and they're impressive but I can imagine not to attractive for other companies.
Silja Symphony- My valuation: 30 million. Same story as Serenade.
Silja Europa- My valuation: 25 million. The ship often described as impossible to sell. Her passenger to lanemeter ratio is a bit ridiculous. She is known to consume so much fuel it is barely possible to have her in traffic nowadays. I see absolutely no place where this ship could possibly go. It feels like my 25 million is already to much but perhaps someone that wants to use it as accommodation or as a hotel is willing to pay it. Otherwise, I fear it will be the scrap.
I wonder if anyone else has any thoughts on it! If you made it this far, thanks for reading this mess haha.
I would have valued Star/Oscar Wilde way higher it has been recenly renovated and dry-docked pre charter and very good shape
I think your valuation for Atlantic Vision is right but hard to see it worth more than that with original interior and overall really rough shape
Those old ships have very high income from floatel with their huge amount of cabins and Serenade and Symphony have atleast 10 years of profitable route business ahead
Tallink's accounting policy for ship values is interesting. I was expecting it to be depreciated cost less impairments after factoring value in use. But nope they say they use a genuine fair value approach (effectively market value) - although they also then say they factor in expected future charter revenues which sort of brings us back to a bit of value in use too.
€1.2bn does look a little toppy. But let's do some unsupported speculation: half of that total will be MyStar and Megastar - I expect those two ships will actually have increased in value vs their build costs. The other 13 ships might be worth something like say €450m-€500m in total ranging from very valuable ones like the Star (now Oscar Wilde) down to the Regal Star and the Sailor.
It would be super interesting to see what Star goes for if Irish Ferries decides to buy her. Hopefully we'll know within a year and Irish Ferries won't play the game of chartering her for 4 years extra when this deal ends. Although it looks like IF are on the market for Dover-Calais aswell as Rosslare-Pembroke, so they might want to save some funds.
Baltic Queen departures are cancelled on November 23th and November 24th.
She needs repairs to ensure safety of ship, passengers and crew after damage has been found during inspection after she had been in rough weather.
